New Mexicans for Science and Reason present
Electoral Nightmare
For the 2016 US Presidential Election, what is the maximum difference in the Popular Vote that could still result in a losing Electoral Vote?
Here are the actual results: note that Clinton received 2.8 million more votes than Trump, who won in the electoral college with 306 votes to Clinton’s 232.
Here is an Extreme Scenario with the same red/blue states as the actual election. Here, Clinton wins blue states by 100%, and loses red states by a couple of votes. Note that Clinton receives 56 million more votes than Trump, who wins his 306 electoral votes with just 28% of the popular vote.
Here is another Extreme Scenario with the same red/blue states as the actual election. Here, Trump wins red states by 100%, and loses blue states by a couple of votes. Note that Trump receives 72 million more votes than Clinton, and wins his 306 electoral votes with 78% of the popular vote.
In the following Most Extreme scenario, Clinton wins the most populous states by 100%, and loses less populous states by a couple of votes. Note that Clinton receives 72 million more votes than Trump, who wins his marginal 270 electoral votes with just 22% of the popular vote. (Congrats: Eric Hanczyc (WA), Mike Arms (NM)).
In this final Very Extreme scenario: Trump wins the most populous states by a couple of votes, and gets no votes in less populous states. Note that Clinton receives 55 million more votes than Trump, who wins his marginal 270 electoral votes with just 28% of the popular vote. (Congrats: Brian Pasko (NM))
From NMSR's Puzzle Page, DECEMBER 2016 PUZZLE - "Electoral College Nightmare"
Submitted by Mike Arms
Solutions Above have been scaled to actual 2016 totals.
The December Bonus Puzzle: For the 2016 US Presidential Election, what is the maximum difference in the Popular Vote that could still result in a losing Electoral Vote? Use these data (an Excel spreadsheet with these data is available at www.nmsr.org/electoral.xls).
| 1st column= | Census population (2010) | |
| 2nd column= | Total seats in House of Representatives (2013–2023) | |
| 3rd column= | State | |
| Pop | Seats | State |
| 37254503 | 53 | California |
| 25146105 | 36 | Texas |
| 18804623 | 27 | Florida |
| 19378087 | 27 | New York |
| 12831549 | 18 | Illinois |
| 12702887 | 18 | Pennsylvania |
| 11536725 | 16 | Ohio |
| 9688681 | 14 | Georgia |
| 9535692 | 13 | North Carolina |
| 9884129 | 14 | Michigan |
| 8791936 | 12 | New Jersey |
| 8001045 | 11 | Virginia |
| 6724543 | 10 | Washington |
| 6392307 | 9 | Arizona |
| 6547817 | 9 | Massachusetts |
| 6484229 | 9 | Indiana |
| 6346275 | 9 | Tennessee |
| 5988927 | 8 | Missouri |
| 5773785 | 8 | Maryland |
| 5687289 | 8 | Wisconsin |
| 5303925 | 8 | Minnesota |
| 5029324 | 7 | Colorado |
| 4625401 | 7 | South Carolina |
| 4780127 | 7 | Alabama |
| 4533479 | 6 | Louisiana |
| 4339349 | 6 | Kentucky |
| 3831073 | 5 | Oregon |
| 3751616 | 5 | Oklahoma |
| 3574118 | 5 | Connecticut |
| 3046869 | 4 | Iowa |
| 2763888 | 4 | Utah |
| 2968103 | 4 | Mississippi |
| 2915958 | 4 | Arkansas |
| 2853132 | 4 | Kansas |
| 2700691 | 4 | Nevada |
| 2059192 | 3 | New Mexico |
| 1826341 | 3 | Nebraska |
| 1853011 | 3 | West Virginia |
| 1567652 | 2 | Idaho |
| 1360301 | 2 | Hawaii |
| 1316466 | 2 | New Hampshire |
| 1328361 | 2 | Maine |
| 1052931 | 2 | Rhode Island |
| 989417 | 1 | Montana |
| 897936 | 1 | Delaware |
| 814191 | 1 | South Dakota |
| 672591 | 1 | North Dakota |
| 710249 | 1 | Alaska |
| 625745 | 1 | Vermont |
| 563767 | 1 | Wyoming |
| 308156338 | 435 | The fifty states |
| 601767 | 3 | District of Columbia |
| 308758105 | 438 | Fifty states + D.C. |
| Electoral Votes | 538 | Add 2 senators per state |
| Needed to win: | 270 |
Hall of Fame (December Puzzle Solvers):
Eric Hanczyc (WA)
Brian Pasko (NM)
Mike Arms (NM)